Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi citrus industry is facing significant challenges, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to one of potential decline, driven by overproduction, disease threats, and market volatility [4][5][20]. Industry Status: From Glory to Dilemma - Guangxi citrus, once thriving, has seen its planting area peak at over 9 million acres, now expected to stabilize between 4.5 to 5 million acres by 2025, marking a shift towards "reduction and quality improvement" [4][19]. - The rise of Guangxi's citrus industry coincided with the decline of Guangdong's due to Huanglongbing disease, leading to a rapid market capture [8][10]. - Prices for sugar oranges have plummeted from a peak of 8 yuan per jin in 2017 to fluctuating between 1-2 yuan per jin from 2018 to 2022, causing many farmers to neglect orchard management [13][14][19]. - The industry is at a crossroads, with structural overcapacity, disease threats, and a lack of post-harvest processing and brand influence posing significant risks [20][23]. Huanglongbing: The Silent Battle in Orchards - Huanglongbing disease has led to widespread tree removals, with estimates suggesting a reduction of at least 1 million acres from peak levels [26]. - The disease, spread by psyllids, causes yellowing leaves and stunted fruit, leading to tree death within 3-5 years [28]. - Current prevention methods are inadequate, relying on sterile seedlings, insecticides, and tree removal, with no effective treatment available [31][32]. - The incidence of Huanglongbing has increased by 12% year-on-year, with some orchards reporting over 30% infection rates [34]. Structural Issues: The Perils of Monoculture - The Guangxi citrus industry is increasingly characterized by monoculture, heightening market risks and disease spread [39][56]. - The concentration of late-maturing varieties has led to market pressure, with over 70% of the crop falling into this category [57]. - Experts warn that the current trend of planting popular varieties like Jin Qiu sugar oranges may lead to a repeat of past mistakes seen with sugar oranges and Wokan [58]. Path to Breakthrough: Winning Through Quality - Despite challenges, Guangxi's citrus industry retains unique advantages, including a favorable climate for year-round supply and a rich variety of cultivars [68]. - The government is investing in disease control and seedling subsidies, with a 300 million yuan fund allocated for 2025 [69]. - Experts recommend cautious expansion, prioritizing the renovation of old orchards, and focusing on high-quality, early-maturing varieties [70]. - The future direction of the industry emphasizes quality over quantity, scientific planting over blind following trends, and long-term planning over short-term profits [75].
广西柑桔： 一场关于生死的冷思考
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao·2025-10-28 04:03