博时宏观观点：外部不确定性或阶段性下降，风险偏好有望回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the bond market remains neutral, with future opportunities arising from monetary policy easing, while A-shares are expected to see a recovery in risk appetite, similar to the situation in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The U.S. inflation data for September was weaker, supporting the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in October, which has contributed to a rebound in global risk appetite [1] - Domestic GDP growth for Q3 fell to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.2% in Q2, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.7%, indicating a mixed economic outlook with strong exports boosting industrial value added, but low investment and consumption levels [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S.-China summit and the release of the full draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to provide more investment clues and improve market sentiment [2] - Historical data suggests that Hong Kong stocks tend to perform well in the six months following preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, benefiting from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] - Recent sanctions by the EU and the U.S. against Russia have led to a significant rebound in oil prices, while ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have alleviated previous panic [2] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of renewed expectations for interest rate cuts and the impact of new redemption regulations, with a mixed outlook for bond prices [1] - The report emphasizes that the basic and capital conditions remain favorable for the bond market, although the market may continue to experience volatility due to external pressures and regulatory changes [1]