博时基金王祥：地缘风险短期利空黄金，中长期博弈仍支持避险需求

Group 1: Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing its largest adjustment of the year, primarily due to a potential easing of geopolitical tensions and profit-taking after a significant rally [1] - Since September, international gold prices have increased by $1,000, leading to considerable profits for long positions, which prompted profit-taking as geopolitical risks did not escalate further [1] - The optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market is a collective response across all varieties, reminiscent of the aggressive market enthusiasm seen in 2011 [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - After October, there has been a continuous reduction in Shanghai gold futures positions, while COMEX holdings have been halted due to government shutdowns, indicating a shift in the driving force behind gold prices to ETF funds [1] - The marginal driving force for gold prices is weakening, suggesting an increased probability of short-term adjustments [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data was slightly below expectations, clearing obstacles for potential interest rate cuts in the remaining part of the year, while the quality and independence of data have been challenged due to government shutdowns [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - New rounds of negotiations between China and the U.S. in Malaysia have led to preliminary agreements, which could reduce trade tensions and negatively impact gold prices in the short term [2] - The EU's support for U.S. proposals regarding a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with new sanctions on Russia, adds to market volatility, indicating that geopolitical risks may temporarily weigh on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term negative impacts, the complexity of long-term geopolitical dynamics will continue to support gold's safe-haven demand [2] Group 4: Investment Products - Bosera Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in RMB through investments in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing investors with diverse investment options in gold [3] - Investors can purchase linked funds through official channels starting from a minimum of 1 RMB, enhancing accessibility for a broader range of investors [3]