Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng at the 2025 Financial Street Forum regarding the resumption of government bond trading is primarily aimed at supporting fiscal efforts, ensuring ample liquidity for financial institutions by year-end, and reinforcing the central bank's control over the yield curve, confirming a loose monetary stance [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The short-term outlook for the bond market has opened up for downward movement, although the long-term operational logic remains largely unchanged [1] - The overall bond market faced pressure in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield experiencing fluctuations upward [1] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds reaching its highest level in nearly two years [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Spread - The widening of the yield spread in recent periods, despite stable short-term interest rates, is mainly attributed to a decline in institutional trading preferences and marginal changes in future growth expectations [1] - Long-term considerations suggest that the current level of the yield spread has adjusted sufficiently, indicating limited further upward movement potential at this point [1]
中信证券:债市当前期限利差的水平已经调整较为充分,在目前点位进一步上行的空间或较为有限