莱坊：香港二手楼价短期仍未能明显回升 港银年内料再减息

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ongoing U.S. tariffs continue to create uncertainty in the global economy, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 0.25% in October to stimulate economic growth [1] - Hong Kong property prices are predicted to improve in the coming months, with an estimated increase of 2% to 3% for the entire year of 2025 and a potential rise of 5% in 2026 [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The market atmosphere is showing signs of recovery, but high inventory levels are preventing significant decreases in bank lending rates, which remain above rental yields, thus attracting more investors [1] - New property sales are expected to outperform the secondary market, but high inventory levels need to be reduced by 12,000 to 13,000 units for prices to rebound effectively [1] - Monthly transaction volumes are anticipated to hover around 5,000, with total transactions for both new and secondary markets expected to rise to 60,000 to 62,000 units this year [1] Group 3: Rental Market Trends - The Hong Kong government's talent programs have led to a slight increase in the labor force and high-income individuals, providing stable support for residential rental demand [2] - Residential rental prices are projected to remain stable in the coming months, with an expected increase of 4% to 5% this year, potentially reaching historical highs [2] - Rental prices are anticipated to continue rising in 2026, with an additional increase of 3% to 5% expected [2]