10月焦炭价格偏强运行，但11月持续涨价难度较大

Core Viewpoint - In October, coking coal supply tightened, leading to strong prices, while downstream steel mills increased inventory demand, resulting in robust coking coal prices. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of further price increases for coking coal in November is diminished, with potential downward pressure on prices after mid-November [1][6]. Group 1: Coking Coal and Coking Prices - In October, domestic coking coal prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY/ton. The price of Shanxi's first-grade dry coke was set at 1575-1645 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.33% increase compared to the end of September [1][3]. - The tightening supply of coking coal, driven by production restrictions and increased costs, has provided a strong support for coking coal prices. As of October 27, the price of Shanxi's S<1 main coking coal reached 1550 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the low end of September [3][4]. - Coking plants are facing losses, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts, which have slightly tightened supply. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [3][4]. Group 2: Downstream Steel Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan remained high at 90.24% as of October 23, indicating strong demand for coking coal. Steel mills actively purchased coking coal due to inventory needs before and after the National Day holiday [4][6]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased significantly, with the average available days of inventory dropping to 7.18 days as of October 23, down 0.4 days from early October. This indicates a strong demand for coking coal despite rising costs [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Although coking coal prices are supported by rising costs, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, making it difficult for coking coal prices to continue rising in November. The seasonal demand for coal is expected to increase, but without significant production increases, supply tightening is anticipated [6]. - The overall expectation for November is that coking coal prices will initially remain strong but may weaken later in the month, depending on the timing of maintenance in steel mills and a noticeable decline in iron production [6].