供需矛盾突出且累库格局不变 甲醇价格低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices are under pressure due to high port inventory levels, with the main contract trading at 2243 yuan/ton, down 1.32% [1] Supply and Demand - Domestic methanol operating rates and weekly production have declined, but the decrease is limited; meanwhile, external import pressures are increasing, maintaining high supply pressure [1] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, poor olefin margins exacerbate supply-demand conflicts [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 22, domestic methanol port inventory totaled 1.5122 million tons, up 1.4% from the previous week, indicating relatively high levels [1] - Factory inventories remain stable at low levels, with weak domestic demand; the overall inventory accumulation pattern is unchanged for October, although accumulation pressure has eased [1] Market Outlook - Short-term demand is supported by stable low factory inventories and high MTO operating rates; however, domestic methanol supply remains ample, and supply is expected to continue increasing [1] - A significant decline in MTO industry operating rates is anticipated in November, with weak demand and high port methanol inventory levels leading to continued pressure on methanol prices [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of the Iranian sanctions ship incident [1]