金价跌破3950美元，机构看法分歧明显

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a potential shift in market sentiment, with analysts expressing concerns about future price trends and adjustments in forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - On October 28, spot gold prices briefly exceeded $4000 per ounce before declining to $3934.97, marking a 1.15% decrease [1]. - Domestic gold prices also fell below 920 yuan per gram, with brand jewelry prices dropping nearly 100 yuan per gram, reflecting a nearly 10% decline from recent highs [1]. - Gold ETFs experienced a 3.5% drop, ranking among the largest declines in the ETF market [1]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Capital Economics analysts predict that the recent decline in gold prices may signal the beginning of a downward trend, with expectations that much of this year's gains could be erased [1]. - The chief market economist at Capital Economics, John Higgins, forecasts that gold prices could fall to $3500 per ounce by the end of next year, representing a decline of over 12% from current levels [1]. - In contrast, Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for 2026 by 16% to $4488, citing strong retail and investment demand in Asia as a counterbalance to a stronger dollar [2]. - UBS maintains a 12-month outlook for gold prices at $4000, attributing this to persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits and an irreversible trend of de-dollarization [2]. - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5000 [2].