开源证券：煤价正在经历惯性上穿 煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant increase in thermal coal prices, driven by supply constraints and rising demand due to seasonal factors, with current prices still at historical lows, suggesting potential for further price recovery [1][2][3]. Thermal Coal Market Summary - As of October 24, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reached 770 RMB/ton, an increase of 22 RMB/ton or 2.94% from the previous period, with other ports also reporting similar price levels [1][2]. - The recent price surge is attributed to a dual impact of supply reduction due to strict production checks post-National Day and increased demand driven by a cold wave in northern regions, leading to higher heating needs and accelerated port inventory replenishment [1][2]. Coking Coal Market Summary - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is reported at 1760 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, while coking coal futures have increased from 719 RMB to 1248 RMB, marking a cumulative rise of 73.5% [2]. - The price of coking coal is closely linked to thermal coal prices, with a notable price ratio of 2.4 times, indicating potential target prices for coking coal based on thermal coal price movements [2][3]. Investment Logic - The upward movement in thermal coal prices is expected to follow a four-step process, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balanced profit margin for coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB by 2025 [3]. - The ideal target for thermal coal prices is projected to be between 800-860 RMB, with the upper limit being the breakeven point for power plants [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for a rebound due to historical low prices and improving supply-demand dynamics, with thermal and coking coal prices expected to rise [4]. - Companies in the coal sector are likely to benefit from both cyclical price recovery and stable dividend payouts, with several listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans [4]. Selected Coal Stocks - Key stocks benefiting from the cyclical logic include Jinko Coal (601001.SH) and Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH) for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH) and Huabei Mining (600985.SH) for metallurgical coal [5][6]. - Dividend-focused stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH) and Zhongmei Energy (601898.SH), while diversified and growth-oriented stocks include Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) and Xinji Energy (601015.SH) [5][6].