增程车越造越多但销量“涨不动了”！刚入场的极狐、小鹏等还有机会吗？

Core Viewpoint - The launch of new models with range-extended power systems indicates a growing interest in this segment, but the market for range-extended vehicles is showing signs of stagnation in sales growth compared to pure electric vehicles [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The new Arcfox Alpha T5, a mid-size SUV, is the first model from the brand to feature a range-extended power system, highlighting a trend among manufacturers to explore this technology [1]. - Other brands like XPeng and GAC Aion are also set to introduce their first range-extended models in November, indicating a competitive push in this segment [3]. Sales Data - In September, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles reached 947,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. In contrast, range-extended vehicle sales were 129,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of only 8.7% [4][5]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles was 63% in September, while range-extended vehicles accounted for only 9%, reflecting a decline in their market presence [7]. Market Trends - The number of announced or planned range-extended models is expected to exceed 20 by 2025, indicating a crowded market [3]. - Despite the influx of new models, the growth rate of range-extended vehicles is lagging behind that of pure electric vehicles, which are benefiting from lower battery costs and technological advancements [7][8]. Technological Developments - Manufacturers are shifting towards larger battery capacities in range-extended vehicles, moving from "small battery + large range extender" to "large battery + small range extender" configurations [9][10]. - The introduction of 800V or 900V architectures in lower-priced models is expected to enhance charging speeds, addressing consumer concerns about charging infrastructure [8]. Future Outlook - There is a consensus that range-extended vehicles will continue to have a place in the market, particularly for consumers in areas with limited charging infrastructure [12][13]. - Projections suggest that by 2040, pure electric vehicles will dominate the market, with an expected penetration rate of 85%, of which 80% will be pure electric models [13].