Anhui Xinbo Aluminum (SZ:003038) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-10-28 09:43Core Viewpoint - Xinbo Co., Ltd. is facing significant operational challenges, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, alongside increasing debt levels and questionable strategic decisions [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, Xinbo reported a revenue of 6.18 billion, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.07 billion, down 95.12% year-on-year, nearing a loss [2][5]. - The company anticipates a revenue of 8.57 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.67%, but expects a net profit of 0.168 billion, a decline of 44.32% [5]. - Since its IPO in early 2021, Xinbo has raised approximately 2.14 billion through direct financing, yet its interest-bearing debt has surged, with short-term loans increasing from 0.188 billion at the end of 2020 to 5.395 billion by Q3 2025, resulting in a debt ratio exceeding 72.64% [5][4]. Shareholder Actions - Major shareholders, including the controlling shareholder Tang Kaijian, have significantly pledged and reduced their holdings, with a total of 2.8479 million shares sold, impacting the company's stock stability [2][3]. - Despite financial strain, Xinbo has allocated around 0.1 billion for share buybacks aimed at incentivizing a select group of middle and senior management [8][4]. Strategic Decisions - Xinbo has engaged in continuous financing for expansion, yet its operating cash flow has been negative for four consecutive years, raising concerns about its financial health [9][11]. - The company made a controversial acquisition of automotive parts assets from Chery New Energy at a 7x premium, which has drawn scrutiny given its current financial struggles [4][14]. - Xinbo is diversifying into the robotics sector, forming a joint venture with Zhongxin Technology, despite its core business facing significant challenges [14]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - Xinbo's production capacity across various segments, including recycled aluminum and automotive lightweight components, is projected to reach between 400,000 to 450,000 tons [10]. - The company has plans for new projects, including a 3.2 billion investment in a new aluminum frame project, with expected production ramp-up in 2025 [9][11].