Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-10-28 10:30Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, serving as a transitional phase between the previous and upcoming plans [3][4] - The capital market is expected to experience opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan," characterized by three main aspects: the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, the rise of AI trends, and the advantages of Chinese manufacturing [4][5] Group 1: Historical Context and Strategic Importance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a key phase for realizing the 2035 vision of achieving basic socialist modernization, bridging the "14th" and "16th" plans [3] - It is also crucial for completing the reform tasks set out in the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session by 2029, which includes over 300 significant reform measures across various sectors [3] Group 2: Capital Market Opportunities - The capital market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by three main opportunities: 1. The ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, which may still be in its early stages due to the restructuring of the international monetary order [4] 2. The AI wave, where China is positioned favorably in global AI competition, leveraging its market size, industrial ecosystem, and policy support [4] 3. The advantages of Chinese manufacturing, which holds nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added and leads in the production of most major industrial products [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Characteristics - The capital market is anticipated to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by several factors: 1. Increased government focus on capital market development, which is expected to play a significant role in achieving the 2035 goals [6] 2. The current A-share market is underpinned by solid fundamentals, benefiting from a large market environment and policy incentives [6] 3. Historical data indicates that A-share valuations remain reasonable, suggesting no overvaluation at present [6] Group 4: Historical Market Performance - Since the "15th" plan in 2001, the A-share market has exhibited three notable characteristics: 1. The index has shown more gains than losses, with increasing resilience over time, as evidenced by varying performance across different five-year plans [6][7] 2. Market performance tends to be stronger in the initial and final years of each five-year plan, indicating a correlation with planning expectations and goal achievements [7] 3. Short-term event-driven effects are significant, with positive market performance observed in the lead-up to and following the release of five-year planning documents [7]