央行重启公开市场国债买卖操作，市场热议会否替代降准

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of open market government bond trading operations, which had been suspended for nearly 10 months, to inject confidence into the bond market amid recent fluctuations [1][2]. Market Analysis - The resumption of government bond trading reflects a flexible regulatory approach closely tied to market conditions, responding to the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts as highlighted in the recent Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The bond market's overall stability has prompted this timely policy adjustment, indicating that the current interest rate levels are recognized by regulators, thus limiting the risk of further increases in rates [2]. Operational Details - The PBOC's bond trading operations began in August 2024, with a cumulative purchase of 1 trillion yuan. The operations were paused earlier this year due to supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC may adjust its operational model to avoid significant market disruptions, likely opting for one-time or multiple purchases from major banks without immediate market sales [3][4]. - The anticipated operational scale for the remainder of 2025 is estimated to be between 700 billion to 1 trillion yuan to counterbalance maturing bonds and meet basic currency supply needs [5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the bond market reacted positively, with significant increases in government bond futures prices, indicating a rapid rise in expectations for policy easing [6][7]. - The resumption of bond trading is seen as a mechanism to release liquidity and stabilize market expectations, aligning with the overall easing policy direction [6]. Potential Implications - The bond trading operations may serve as a substitute for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, potentially reducing the necessity for further RRR adjustments in the near term [7]. - This approach could alleviate pressure on commercial banks' bond holdings while achieving effects similar to RRR cuts, thereby supporting stable market operations in the fourth quarter [7].