鸣鸣很忙冲刺港股：收入三年复合增203% 净利润暴增234.6% 加盟模式隐忧重重

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth primarily through an aggressive franchise model, but this growth is accompanied by substantial risks related to franchise management, low profit margins, and high reliance on acquisitions [1][2][17] Group 1: Business Model and Revenue Structure - The company operates 16,783 stores, with 99.9% being franchise stores, indicating a heavy reliance on the franchise model [1] - In 2024, 98.8% of revenue (388.88 billion) came from sales to franchisees, while franchise service fees contributed only 1.2% (4.56 billion), highlighting a highly concentrated revenue structure [4] - The acquisition of Zhao Yiming Snacks in November 2023 significantly boosted store count and revenue, contributing 55.3% (217.56 billion) of total revenue in 2024 [2][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue surged from 4.286 billion in 2022 to 39.344 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% [2] - Adjusted net profit increased from 0.81 billion in 2022 to 9.13 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 234.6% [3] - Despite high growth rates, net profit margins remain low, with a net profit margin of only 2.1% in 2024, significantly below industry averages [3][8] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin is consistently low, at 7.6% in 2024, compared to the supermarket channel average of 15%-20% [3][8] - Sales costs accounted for 92.4% of revenue in 2024, indicating weak cost control capabilities [3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The franchise model poses risks, as a significant number of franchise stores may close if management fails, leading to a direct impact on revenue [1][11] - The company has a goodwill of 2.25 billion, which constitutes 22% of total assets, raising concerns about potential impairment if the acquired business underperforms [5][12] - Cash flow is under pressure, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -2.3 billion in 2024, relying heavily on financing for expansion [7][13] Group 5: Governance and Management Issues - The controlling shareholders hold 62.6% of the company, leading to potential governance issues and lack of checks and balances [10][14] - High executive compensation, with the chairman and CEO's salary reaching 802 million in the first half of 2025, raises concerns about alignment with shareholder interests [10] Group 6: Market Position and Competition - The company faces intense competition from major retailers and other snack brands, which may pressure profit margins further [15] - The reliance on a low-price strategy could lead to reduced profitability in a competitive market [15]