Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-28 12:05Core Insights - The investment boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a strong rally in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta, are set to release their Q3 earnings reports, which will be crucial for the future trajectory of the U.S. stock market [1] - Analysts emphasize that investor focus will be on AI-related capital expenditures and the returns on AI investments, which are expected to impact companies' free cash flow and gross margins [1] AI-Related Capital Expenditure - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with a resilient macroeconomic environment, continues to fuel interest in the tech sector [2] - A report from Wells Fargo indicates that the market's focus will shift to large tech companies' AI capital expenditure plans, which are critical for Q3 earnings and further stock market gains [2] - Gartner forecasts global AI spending to reach nearly $1.5 trillion by 2025, a 50% increase from 2024, and to rise to $2 trillion by 2026, marking a further 37% growth [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that AI investment is still in its early stages, predicting a multi-year capital expansion cycle, with total capital expenditures for large tech companies expected to grow by 24% to nearly $550 billion by 2026 [2] Focus on Cloud and Infrastructure - Industry insiders suggest that tech giants will prioritize AI spending on cloud and foundational infrastructure, with capital expenditures directed towards building data centers and acquiring high-performance servers and GPUs [3] - Microsoft anticipates Q3 capital expenditures of $30 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 50%, with continued growth expected in FY2026, albeit at a slower rate [3] - Google has raised its annual capital expenditure forecast, expecting it to reach $85 billion by 2025, with further increases anticipated for 2026 [3] Investment Returns and Market Sentiment - The debate over whether U.S. tech stocks are in a bubble is intensifying, with the profitability of AI remaining uncertain, making Q3 earnings critical for market outlook [5] - Citigroup's report highlights that AI infrastructure investments are exceeding expectations, with real enterprise demand providing a "release valve" for this investment wave, distinguishing it from the 2000 internet bubble [6] - Coatue Management asserts that the long-term fundamentals in the AI sector remain strong, supported by healthy operating cash flows rather than excessive leverage [6] - Analysts are closely monitoring the free cash flow of major cloud service providers, noting a trend of decline that could signal the end of the AI capital expenditure boom [6] Cloud Service Growth Rates - For Q3, analysts expect Microsoft Azure's revenue growth to reach approximately 36%, accounting for 40% of total revenue; Google Cloud's growth is projected at 29%-30%, reaching $14.66 billion; while AWS is expected to grow at a slower rate of 17.8%, with revenues of $32.33 billion [7]