J&J Stock Can Fall

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is facing significant challenges, highlighting that even large corporations are not immune to market fluctuations [1][8] - The company is currently dealing with a talc crisis, with a projected 73,570 lawsuits expected by October 2025, marking a 17% increase since December 2024 [7] - Financial performance indicators show a revenue growth of 5.1% over the last twelve months and a 6.1% average over the last three years [7] Legal and Regulatory Challenges - JNJ has announced a voluntary recall of 33,000 bottles of baby powder due to trace amounts of asbestos found in a single bottle [3] - The company is engaged in litigation on a case-by-case basis following failed settlement proposals ranging from $8 to $10 billion, which adds to financial and reputational risks [7] - Emerging product liability issues include UK talc lawsuits and new claims involving Tylenol, further complicating the company's legal landscape [7] Financial Performance - Sales of Stelara, a drug for various conditions, have declined by 40% in the first nine months of 2025, with Q1 2025 sales dropping by 33.7% to $1.08 billion [7] - JNJ's free cash flow margin stands at 20.3%, and the operating margin is at 26.2% for the last twelve months [7] - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 18.2, indicating a lower valuation compared to the S&P, while exhibiting higher three-year average revenue growth and superior margins [7] Market Volatility Impact - Historical data shows that JNJ's stock declined approximately 35% during the Dot-Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, and around 27% during the Covid sell-off [8] - Lesser downturns, such as the 2018 correction and last year's inflation crisis, resulted in declines nearing 18%, demonstrating the vulnerability of even strong companies during market shifts [8]