地方竞争模式迎来历史性重构关口

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of local government competition is crucial for maintaining development enthusiasm while avoiding unnecessary losses from "involution" competition, especially in the context of building a unified national market [1] Group 1: Changes in Local Competition - Local competition has historically been a key driver of China's economic growth, but its effectiveness is diminishing as the economy undergoes structural changes [2] - The shift from a manufacturing-led economy to a service-oriented one is evident, with the tertiary sector accounting for 56.7% of GDP in 2024 and employing 48.8% of the workforce [3] - The focus on production-oriented spending by local governments has suppressed consumer spending, leading to a threefold negative effect on residents' consumption [3] Group 2: Innovation and Economic Growth - The traditional factor-driven growth model is becoming less effective, with the marginal productivity of capital declining from nearly 30% in 2000 to below 10% in 2019 [4] - Local competition has reduced the returns on innovation, creating a "prisoner's dilemma" where regions compete for subsidies, ultimately leading to fiscal losses and uncertainty in innovation outcomes [4] Group 3: Regional Economic Dynamics - Economic growth is shifting from uniform progress to steady differentiation among regions, with resource allocation increasingly favoring areas with inherent advantages [5] - The central government has emphasized the importance of promoting the efficient flow and aggregation of various factors since 2019, aiming to create regional growth poles centered around major cities [5] Group 4: Reforming Local Competition - Short-term measures to address local competition's negative effects include regulating local investment attraction practices [6] - Long-term reforms should focus on establishing a new local competition system that prioritizes spatial allocation benefits over mere GDP growth [6] - The new competition framework should shift from capital-centric to labor-centric, encouraging local governments to enhance living quality and public services to attract talent [7] Group 5: Taxation and Incentives - The reform should transition from protective competition to incentive-based competition, leveraging fiscal policies to guide local governments towards regional cooperation and industry development [8] - Adjustments in the distribution of tax revenues based on consumption rather than production are necessary to align local incentives with national economic growth [10] - Encouraging inter-regional collaboration and fair distribution of economic statistics will promote the rational flow of economic factors [10]