连平：“十五五”财政政策将怎样积极有为

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].