Absolute Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Increased by Less than 1% in 2024, Even as Production Grew

Core Insights - Absolute greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands production increased by less than 1% in 2024, despite a rise in total production [1][2] - The average greenhouse gas intensity of oil sands production decreased by 3% to 57 kgCO2e/bbl in 2024, indicating ongoing efficiency improvements [4][5] - Since 2009, the average GHG intensity has declined by 28%, equating to nearly 22 kgCO2e/b of marketable product [5] Emissions and Production Trends - In 2024, absolute annual emissions rose by less than 1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, while total oil sands production increased by 150,000 barrels per day [2] - From 2019 to 2024, absolute emissions grew by close to 5 MMtCO2e, averaging 1% annually, while production increased by nearly 400,000 b/d [3] - In the previous five years (2015-2019), absolute emissions rose by nearly 12 MMtCO2e with a production increase of 600,000 b/d, reflecting a higher annual average increase of 4% [3] Future Outlook - S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates that absolute emissions will continue to grow at a slower rate, as GHG intensity reductions may be modestly outpaced by production additions [5] - The potential for a peak in oil sands absolute emissions exists, but stronger-than-expected production growth pushes that prospect further into the future [6]