Canada and Mexico will be the greatest beneficiaries of Trump's trade policy: Strategas' Dan Clifton

Trade Relations - The current trade situation with China involves a delay in rare earth restrictions and no new tariffs from the US, which helps protect downside risks for the markets [2][3] - There is a potential for upside if tariffs are reduced in exchange for an agreement on fentanyl, although this is considered a low probability [4] - Smaller agreements with other Asian countries are being signed to restrict China's ability to transship goods into the US, strengthening the US's negotiating position [4] North American Trade - Canada and Mexico are expected to benefit the most from trade negotiations, as they will have the lowest effective tariff rates in the world due to the absence of reciprocal tariffs [6] - The president's proposed 10% tariff on non-USMCA goods from Canada is seen as a minor issue, as it pertains to a small portion of imports [5][6] Global Supply Chains - The shift towards a deglobalized world is prompting countries to build self-sufficient supply chains, particularly in critical areas like rare earths and pharmaceuticals [9][10] - Both the US and China are gradually developing their respective chip and rare earth industries to avoid disruptions in the global economy [10] - The ongoing trade dynamics are characterized more as a truce rather than a comprehensive deal, focusing on minor issues to maintain the status quo [11]