Will Mastercard Stock Rise On Its Upcoming Earnings?

Core Insights - Mastercard is expected to report earnings on October 30, 2025, with projected revenue growth of approximately 16% year-over-year to $8.54 billion and earnings growth of 11% to $4.32 per share, driven by increases in gross dollar volume and strong cross-border transactions [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $500 billion, with revenue of $30 billion over the past twelve months, operating profits of $18 billion, and net income of $14 billion [3] Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth is anticipated to be fueled by robust global consumer spending and a recovery in international travel, particularly in Europe and Asia [2] - Mastercard's expanding suite of value-added services, such as data analytics and cybersecurity, is expected to contribute to revenue growth beyond core transaction fees [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Mastercard has recorded 20 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day post-earnings returns, indicating a 50% occurrence of positive returns [5] - The median of positive one-day returns is 2.3%, while the median of negative returns is -1.8% [5] Correlation Analysis - A strategy based on understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be beneficial, particularly if the correlation is strong [6] - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can guide trading decisions, with traders potentially taking long positions if the one-day return is positive [6]