Par Pacific(US:PARR) ZACKSยท2025-10-28 15:07Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a significant year-over-year increase in earnings for Par Petroleum (PARR) despite lower revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Par Petroleum is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.21 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +2310%, while revenues are projected to be $1.91 billion, down 10.9% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for November 4, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, whereas disappointing results may cause a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 115% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - However, the Most Accurate Estimate for Par Petroleum is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -10.16%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, but its predictive power is stronger for positive readings [9][10]. - Par Petroleum's combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1 complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Par Petroleum exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.54 per share against an estimate of $0.74, resulting in a surprise of +108.11% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Context - In the broader industry, PBF Energy is expected to report a loss of $0.69 per share, with a year-over-year change of +54%, and revenues projected at $7.52 billion, down 10.3% [18]. - PBF Energy's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 27.3% higher recently, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -5.91%, making predictions of an earnings beat challenging [19][20].