Can Dexcom Deliver Strong Q3 Earnings on Stelo Gains and G7 Adoption?

Core Viewpoint - DexCom, Inc. is expected to report strong third-quarter results, driven by operational momentum, patient growth, and improved access, with a raised full-year revenue outlook reflecting confidence in demand and reimbursement expansion [1][2][8] Operational Performance - The company enters Q3 with solid operational momentum, supported by continued patient growth and a strengthening global footprint [2][8] - Commercial execution is a focal point, with healthy uptake of the product portfolio, particularly G7 and Stelo, despite competitive pressures [3][8] - Improved channel operations and access expansion are likely to have contributed to stronger prescription trends and pharmacy channel throughput [4][6] U.S. Market Dynamics - Strong new patient additions and integration with over 100 health systems have supported smoother prescription workflows [4][5] - Coverage for Type 2 diabetes patients not on insulin has broadened, with access secured through a major PBM, potentially covering around six million lives [4][5] International Trends - The international business has maintained healthy growth, driven by expanding Type 2 access and market penetration in regions like Ontario, France, and Japan [7][10] - Management expects continued international contribution, supported by growing awareness among primary care providers and improving prescription visibility [9][10] Stelo and New Market Initiatives - Stelo is an emerging growth vector, with over 400,000 app downloads and partnerships enhancing user engagement [11][12] - While currently a small financial contributor, Stelo is expected to represent 2% to 3% of 2025 sales, with ongoing feature expansion likely to accelerate adoption [12] Financial Outlook and Margin Progress - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $4.60 to $4.625 billion, reflecting 14% to 15% growth [13] - Gross margin is projected at approximately 62%, with expectations for sequential improvement as freight costs ease and inventory levels normalize [13][14] Estimate Picture - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $1.18 billion, indicating an 18.4% improvement year-over-year, with EPS expected to increase by 26.7% to 57 cents [15] Long-Term Investment Visibility - Dexcom's long-term growth is supported by the expansion of the CGM category into Type 2 and pre-diabetes markets, with improving coverage and digital workflow integration [24][25] - Innovation remains central to the strategy, with advancements in product offerings and software enhancing usability and user engagement [25][26]