Target vs. Build-A-Bear: Which Retail Stock Offers More Upside?

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) and Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) are positioned as notable investment opportunities amid changing consumer trends and retail sector pressures [1] - TGT is focusing on technology investments and AI-driven efficiency to revitalize growth, while BBW is achieving record results through a capital-light, partner-operated expansion model [1] Summary of Target Corporation (TGT) - TGT is leveraging strong brand equity and diverse product assortment to navigate a challenging retail environment, with digital sales increasing by 4.3% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2025 [2] - The company has deployed over 10,000 AI licenses to enhance forecasting and improve replenishment, contributing to its best on-shelf availability in years [3] - TGT's merchandising strategy, FUN 101, has driven over 5% year-over-year growth in hardlines, with notable successes in trading cards and tech accessories [4] - Despite these advancements, TGT's net sales declined by 0.9% year over year, and adjusted EPS fell from $2.57 to $2.05 due to tariff-related costs [5] - TGT announced plans to eliminate 1,800 corporate positions, representing about 8% of its global workforce, to streamline operations and enhance decision-making [6] Summary of Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - BBW reported its most profitable quarter in history, with revenues increasing by 11.1% year over year to $124.2 million and EPS rising by 46.9% to $0.94 [7] - The company's capital-light, partner-operated model has allowed for rapid global expansion, with 14 new experience locations opened, 86% of which are international [8] - BBW's Mini Beans collection saw an 80% year-over-year sales increase, and e-commerce demand grew by 15.1% [10] - However, BBW faces challenges from tariff exposure and rising costs, with management expecting $16 million in tariff-related headwinds for fiscal 2025 [11] - Operating expenses increased to 45.4% of revenues due to wage inflation, and inventory levels rose by 22% year over year to $81.8 million [12] Financial Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TGT implies year-over-year declines of 1.4% in sales and 16.3% in EPS, with the current EPS estimate at $7.42 [13] - In contrast, BBW's estimates suggest year-over-year increases of 7.4% in sales and 6.9% in EPS, with the current EPS estimate at $4.03 [16] - Over the past month, TGT shares gained 10.1%, while BBW shares declined by 21.5%, reflecting investor sentiment towards TGT's improving performance [18] Valuation Comparison - TGT is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.42, below its three-year median of 0.59, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [19] - BBW's forward P/S multiple is 1.34, above its three-year median of 0.79, suggesting it is relatively pricier compared to TGT [19] Investment Outlook - TGT is viewed as the stronger investment candidate due to its improving digital momentum, AI-driven efficiency, and disciplined cost management [20] - While BBW continues to achieve record profitability, it faces near-term risks from rising costs and tariff exposure, making TGT a more favorable option for consistent growth [21]