Colgate's Pre-Q3 Earnings: Will Pricing Actions Offset Cost Headwinds?

Core Insights - Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) is anticipated to report a decline in earnings for Q3 2025, with revenues expected to reach $5.1 billion, reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year [1][9] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for CL's earnings is set at 89 cents per share, indicating a 2.2% decline compared to the previous year [2][9] - In the last reported quarter, CL exceeded the consensus earnings estimate by 3.4%, with an average earnings surprise of 3.7% over the last four quarters [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -0.61% for Colgate, with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this season [3] Business Momentum and Growth Drivers - Colgate's Q3 performance is expected to benefit from strong business momentum, driven by pricing strategies, funding-the-growth initiatives, and productivity improvements [4][9] - The company's focus on science-based innovation, such as the relaunch of Colgate Total and other product lines, is supporting category growth and brand penetration [5] Sales and Margin Expectations - Projected sales growth for Q3 2025 is 2.9%, with organic sales growth of 2.1%. Volume is expected to decline by 0.1%, offset by pricing gains of 2.2% [6] - Gross margin is predicted to expand by 60 basis points to 60.7% for Q3 2025, supported by strong pricing and revenue growth management initiatives [7] Regional Performance Challenges - Colgate's performance may face challenges from inflationary pressures, foreign currency fluctuations, and weak performance in key regions, particularly in Latin America [8][10] Market Performance and Valuation - Colgate's shares have decreased by 10.4% over the past three months, compared to a 5.1% decline in the industry [11] - The company trades at a forward P/E multiple of 20.18X, which is above the industry average of 19.05X and below the S&P 500's average of 23.69X, indicating a relatively high valuation [11]