Consumer Confidence Slips as Lower-Income Households Feel Strained

Core Insights - Consumer confidence decreased in October, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index falling to 94.6 from 95.6 in September, marking the lowest level since spring [1] - There is a notable divergence between current and future economic assessments, particularly across different income groups [1] Consumer Sentiment - The Present Situation Index increased by 1.8 points to 129.3, indicating a more positive appraisal of current business and labor conditions, while the Expectations Index dropped by 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the recession concern threshold for the eighth consecutive month [3] - Inflation expectations rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in September, with over half of consumers anticipating higher borrowing costs [4] Income Disparities - Lower-income households, particularly those earning below $75,000, showed sharper declines in confidence, contrasting with improved sentiment among those earning above $200,000 [6] - Labor Economy workers, earning $25 an hour or less, represent about one-third of the U.S. workforce and account for approximately $1.7 trillion in annual consumer spending [6] Economic Impact - A 1% wage change in the Labor Economy segment could impact GDP by about $17 billion, highlighting the sensitivity of consumer spending to wage fluctuations [7] - Confidence among lower-income groups deteriorates more rapidly with rising inflation expectations or stagnant wages [8] Demographic Variations - Economic pressures affect different demographic groups unevenly, with confidence improving among consumers aged 35 to 54, while declining for those younger than 35 and older than 55 [9] Holiday Spending Outlook - Early indicators suggest consumers plan to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift items during the holiday season, prioritizing promotions and value [12] - Despite optimism regarding current job and income conditions, persistent weakness in expectations indicates uncertainty as the holiday season approaches [12]