HCA raises 2025 guidance, but eyes looming headwinds

Core Insights - HCA Healthcare's revised 2025 outlook appears conservative despite strong third-quarter performance, with analysts noting potential caution in guidance [3] - The company reported a significant boost in adjusted earnings due to finalized Medicaid state supplemental payment programs, contributing $240 million to earnings and driving year-over-year growth in inpatient revenue [4][5] - HCA raised its full-year profit and revenue outlook, expecting revenue between $75 billion and $76.5 billion and net income between $6.5 billion and $6.72 billion for 2025 [8] Financial Performance - HCA's third-quarter revenue reached $19.2 billion, reflecting a 9.6% year-over-year increase, driven by rising same-facility equivalent admissions and higher surgical volumes [8] - Same-facility equivalent admissions increased by 2.4% year over year, while emergency room visits and inpatient and outpatient surgeries saw approximately 1% growth [6] Medicaid and Subsidy Implications - The government funds from Medicaid are crucial for offsetting the gap between reimbursement rates and actual care costs, with HCA relying on these payments [5] - Potential disruptions to enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, set to expire at the end of 2025, could lead to millions becoming uninsured and significant revenue losses for providers [7]