Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-28 23:39Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the recent acceleration of growth in the U.S. combined with impending fiscal easing will lead to multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will lower real interest rates [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Environment - The U.S. fiscal sustainability is declining in the medium to long term, which may lead to an oversupply of dollars and further weaken the dollar's valuation anchor [1] - The rapid expansion of stablecoins and deregulation of banks could contribute to this oversupply [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Continuous intervention by the White House in the Federal Reserve could further widen the decline of the dollar index over the next 3-5 years [1] - Historical instances of excessive intervention in Federal Reserve policies have significantly increased the risk of inflation "de-anchoring" [1] - Maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve, although it may cause short-term pain, is more beneficial for market expectations and the stability of the financial system in the long run [1] Group 3: Global Implications - The weakening of the dollar needs to be monitored for its impact on global asset pricing, especially in the context of rising inflation in China post-pandemic and declining fiscal sustainability [1] - A potential reduction in the independence of overseas central banks could pose long-term concerns [1]