Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 00:27Core Viewpoint - The company maintained stable revenue and good profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, despite facing pressure in the personal market due to slowing traffic growth. The family market achieved good growth driven by gigabit upgrades and mobile family plans, while mobile cloud and 5G private network businesses continued to grow rapidly. With a continuous decline in capital expenditure, depreciation and amortization are expected to remain stable or decrease over the next three years. The company guides for steady revenue growth and good profit growth for the full year [1][6]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's operating revenue was 794.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The main business revenue was 683.1 billion yuan, up 0.8%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0% [2][3]. - For Q3 2025, the operating revenue was 250.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%. The communication service revenue was 216.2 billion yuan, up 0.8%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1.43% [3]. Cash Flow - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was 161.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.13% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was 77.2 billion yuan, down 16.70% year-on-year. However, the decline in cash flow narrowed in Q3 as the company strengthened cash flow management [4]. Market Segments - In the personal market, as of September 30, 2025, the total number of mobile customers reached 1.009 billion, with 5G network customers at 622 million. In the first three quarters, mobile internet traffic grew by 8.3%, and mobile ARPU was 48.0 yuan, a decrease of 1.5 yuan year-on-year. Despite traffic growth, pricing pressure remains due to promotional activities and number portability [5]. - In the family market, as of September 30, 2025, the total number of fixed broadband customers reached 329 million, with a net increase of 14.2 million in the first three quarters. The comprehensive ARPU for family customers was 44.4 yuan [5]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects steady revenue growth and good profit growth for the full year. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 144.6 billion yuan, 149.8 billion yuan, and 154.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 15.88X, 15.33X, and 14.83X, respectively. The investment rating is maintained as "buy" [6].