专访赵然：租赁住房是比商业地产更抗周期的“防御性资产”

Core Insights - The value of a "good house" is shifting from a one-time sale to a financial asset that generates stable, sustainable cash flow [1][4] - The housing rental industry in China is transitioning from a fragmented "second landlord" model to a more financialized, institutionalized, and professionalized phase [1][3] - The current market drivers include the expansion of affordable rental housing, the need for state-owned enterprises to revitalize idle assets, and the desire of long-term capital like insurance REITs to seek stable returns amid an "asset shortage" [1][3] Industry Transformation - Leading companies are reducing renovation costs by 15% to 20% and increasing net operating income by 3% to 5% through modular renovations and digital operations, indicating a structural shift rather than a temporary efficiency gain [2][6] - The REITs market's stringent requirements for cash flow stability and predictability are forcing the entire industry to quantify the four dimensions of a "good house"—physical space, functional setup, community environment, and service system—into clear financial data [2][7] Role of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises, with their vast holdings of idle land and old properties, are central to this asset revolution, benefiting from location and cost advantages but facing challenges in market-oriented operations and cost control [3][12] - Financial instruments like REITs and ABS provide a channel for asset realization and act as a "reform benchmark," pushing these enterprises towards internal optimization and professional transformation [3][12] Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics - The valuation logic has shifted from land appreciation to operational cash flow, with key metrics for assessing a "good house" now being NOI (Net Operating Income) and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) [1][5] - NOI reflects property operational efficiency and real cash flow, while EBITDA indicates management capability and scalability, emphasizing a transition from developer thinking to asset management thinking [5][6] Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition in the housing rental market is expected to focus on "brand premium ability" and "extreme operational efficiency" over the next three to five years, leading to a dual structure of state-owned enterprises and specialized brands [3][20] - The rental housing market is characterized by a natural demand for housing, making it a defensive asset that can withstand economic fluctuations, unlike commercial real estate [16][17] Institutionalization and Future Outlook - The institutionalization rate of China's housing rental market is currently around 10%, with expectations of reaching a healthy level of 30% to 40% in the next 5 to 10 years as the market transitions from a "development logic" to a "holding and operation logic" [18] - The market is moving towards a more rational and professional long-termism phase, with competition shifting from price wars to quality and efficiency battles [19][20]