Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is expected to see a significant increase in parcel volume and revenue, with a focus on the "anti-involution" trend that is easing competitive pressures and potentially improving profitability in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In September 2025, the national express delivery parcel volume reached 16.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while the total volume from January to September was 145.08 billion, up 17.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The express delivery industry revenue in September 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, although the average revenue per parcel decreased by 4.9%. For the first nine months, revenue grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a 7.1% decline in average revenue per parcel [4][5]. Group 2: E-commerce Express Delivery - Major e-commerce express delivery companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported parcel volume growth in September 2025 of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5% respectively, with year-to-date growth rates of 19.4%, 13.0%, and 17.1% [2][3]. - The average revenue per parcel for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in September 2025 showed slight increases, while their year-to-date figures reflected declines of 4.9%, 5.7%, and 2.0% respectively [4][5]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is increasing, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9% in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the market shares of leading companies such as YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu were 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, with slight changes compared to Q2 [3]. Group 4: Pricing Trends - The decline in average revenue per parcel has narrowed in September 2025, indicating a reduction in price competition due to the "anti-involution" measures. This trend is expected to continue, promoting healthier competition in the long term [4][5]. - The average revenue per parcel for SF Express in September 2025 decreased by 13.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 13.0% [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to alleviate competitive pressures, with expectations for profitability recovery in e-commerce express delivery in the latter half of the year. Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases [6]. - Companies with strong performance growth, such as SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda, are recommended for investment [6].