燃油车销量连续四个月增长，专家称“退场论”为时尚早

Core Viewpoint - The competition between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles continues, with fuel vehicle sales showing signs of recovery despite the rising prominence of electric vehicles in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Data - In September, domestic passenger car sales reached 2.299 million units, a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. Traditional fuel vehicle sales accounted for 1 million units, an increase of 60,000 units year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10.9% and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2]. - From January to September, domestic passenger car sales totaled 17.044 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Traditional fuel vehicle sales reached 8.141 million units, an increase of 136,000 units year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.7% [2]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in traditional fuel vehicle sales for 2024 is projected to be 17.7% [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales and Market Trends - Retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 4% in September, but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The cumulative year-on-year decline for the first nine months was also 4%, showing a notable recovery compared to the 14% decline projected for 2024 [4]. - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, with the 2025 vehicle replacement policy expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage subsidies [5]. Group 3: Promotional Strategies - Promotional efforts for fuel vehicles have exceeded those for electric vehicles, with promotional intensity for fuel vehicles remaining stable at around 23.9% for the past ten months, while electric vehicles maintained a promotional intensity of 10.2% [5]. - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles have shown particularly high promotional intensity, with luxury vehicles reaching 27.7% in September and joint venture fuel vehicles at 23.3%, compared to 13% in 2023 [5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - To maintain market share, fuel vehicles are increasingly adopting smart technologies to address perceptions of being less intelligent compared to electric vehicles. New fuel vehicle models are showing significant improvements in smart driving, smart cockpit, connectivity, and interaction features [5]. - Many automakers are continuing to develop both electric and fuel vehicles, with companies like Geely stating they will not abandon the fuel vehicle market, which still accounts for 50% of their sales [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Despite the higher growth rate of electric vehicle sales, traditional fuel vehicles still hold a significant market presence, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5% and a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for electric vehicles in September, both reaching historical highs [7]. - Starting next year, the decline in subsidies for electric vehicles and the introduction of a 5% vehicle purchase tax may impact the market dynamics, while consumer demand for fuel vehicles remains due to concerns over electric vehicle safety incidents [7].