焦煤：产地煤价偏强运行 下游补库需求回暖 蒙煤价格上涨

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with coking coal prices showing signs of a potential peak, while downstream demand remains strong due to inventory replenishment needs [5] Supply - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 83.96%, down by 0.68% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 8.48 million tons per week, a decrease of 68,000 tons [2] - The inventory of raw coal stands at 1.49 million tons, down by 12.54% week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is 4.33 million tons per week, down by 4.70% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.91 million tons, down by 51,000 tons [2] Demand - As of October 23, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 646,000 tons, down by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills produce an average of 461,000 tons of coke daily, an increase of 2000 tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.40 million tons, down by 10,500 tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.71%, up by 0.44% [3] - The profitability rate of steel mills is 47.62%, down by 7.79% week-on-week [3] Inventory - As of October 23, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and border areas) is 36.77 million tons, an increase of 606,000 tons week-on-week [4] - The inventory at 523 coal mines decreased by 25,800 tons to 414,500 tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants decreased by 9,800 tons to 464,800 tons [4] - Coking plants' inventory increased by 32,300 tons to 1.03 million tons, while steel mills' inventory decreased by 5,400 tons to 783,000 tons [4] Market Strategy - The short-term adjustments in coking coal prices do not affect the bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, with recommendations to buy coking coal at lower prices within the range of 1,150 to 1,350 [5] - There is a suggestion to arbitrage between coking coal and coke, while caution is advised due to significant market fluctuations [5]