Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 28, cup rubber is priced at 53.35 THB/kg (+0.20), latex at 55.00 THB/kg (+0.50), Yunnan rubber at 14,200 CNY/ton (+200), Hainan private rubber at 15,800 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,880 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed rubber at 15,000 CNY/ton (0) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year. The increase is attributed to early snowfall in regions like Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, boosting demand for snow tires [1] - The capacity utilization rate for all-steel tire sample enterprises is 65.87%, up 1.91 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.95 percentage points year-on-year. Production has returned to normal levels, contributing to a slight increase in overall capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory for tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of October 23, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days month-on-month and up 8.35 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days month-on-month and up 0.96 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - According to QinRex, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports were 1.116 million tons, down 20%, while smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, up 22%, and latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% [2] - From January to September, Thailand exported a total of 759,000 tons of natural rubber to China, an increase of 6% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports to China were 459,000 tons, down 19%, while smoked sheet rubber exports surged to 99,000 tons, up 330%, and latex exports reached 199,000 tons, up 70% [2] - Overall, Thailand's total exports of natural and mixed rubber reached 3.247 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with exports to China totaling 2.006 million tons, up 26% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, excessive rainfall in production areas is expected to continue until the end of the month, supporting raw material prices. However, there are expectations for increased supply in the medium to long term, with attention on future weather conditions [3] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains stable, with concentrated orders for snow tires. Production enthusiasm among semi-steel tire manufacturers remains high to ensure normal supply of various products. For all-steel tires, shipment performance is steady, but some companies are experiencing rising inventory levels [3] - The overall macro environment is favorable in the short term, with strong support for rubber prices from raw material prices. Future attention will be on the output of raw materials during the peak production period and macroeconomic changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward price movement, while if supply is constrained, rubber prices are expected to remain around 15,000-15,500 CNY [3]
天然橡胶：原料持续反弹 胶价偏强震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-29 02:07