黄金七日跌近500美元，还能上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in spot gold prices, dropping nearly $500 from historical highs within a week, is attributed to easing short-term risk aversion and liquidity pressures in the silver market [1][4]. Price Movements - As of October 28, spot gold prices fell to $3,886.199 per ounce, with a significant drop from a peak of $4,381.48 per ounce on October 20, marking a decline of over 11% [2][4]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 901.38 yuan, down 4.2%, while Au99.99 fell below 900 yuan, closing at 896.60 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.67% [1][3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the decline in gold prices is influenced by factors such as the easing of U.S. government shutdown fears, uncertainties in global trade tariffs, and profit-taking from previous safe-haven buying [4][6]. - The market is sensitive to central bank actions, with reports indicating that the former governor of the Philippines' central bank suggested selling some gold reserves due to reduced risk appetite, which negatively impacted gold prices [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of prices rising above $4,500 per ounce in the coming year, driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal risks and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7]. - Central banks, including South Korea's, are considering increasing gold purchases, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [6][7]. Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment indicates a desire for deeper corrections in gold prices, with some analysts suggesting that a price of $3,500 per ounce could be considered healthy for the market [5][6]. - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold, projecting prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2028 due to structural demand from central banks and investors [7].