美联储降息被定价 看鲍威尔指引

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is under pressure due to market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 80% probability of a cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is currently trading around 98.737, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the previous close of 98.735 [1] - The yield curve has slightly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering just below 4% at 3.976% [1] - The bond market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate range to 3.75%-4.00% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants are anticipating a high likelihood (80%) of another rate cut in December, which is contributing to the pressure on the dollar [1] - The economic data is scarce due to government shutdown, making market assumptions crucial, with Jerome Powell's tone being particularly significant [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, as long as the dollar index remains above the 50-day moving average, the trend is still intact [2] - The market will continue to exhibit a weak upward trend unless bulls can break through 99.139 and reclaim 99.563 [2] - Without new hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the current situation is unlikely to change [2]