关税继续缓和叠加CPI数据弱于预期，美股回升

Macroeconomic Data - The US September CPI data did not exceed expectations, with core inflation slightly declining while super core inflation remained resilient. The CPI year-on-year increased by 3%, higher than the previous value of 2.9% but lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI year-on-year also increased by 3%, lower than both the previous and expected values of 3.1%. Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% and the expected 0.4%. The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% and the expected 0.3% [1]. PMI Data - Global PMI data showed divergence, with the US PMI rebounding above expectations, while the Eurozone manufacturing returned to the growth line, and manufacturing conditions in Germany and Japan remained poor. The US October Markit Composite PMI recorded 54.8, exceeding the expected 53.5 and previous 53.9. The US October Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, slightly above the expected and previous values of 52. The US October Markit Services PMI recorded 55.2, higher than the expected 53.5 and previous 54.2. The Eurozone October Composite PMI preliminary value was 52.2, above the expected 51.1 and previous 51.2. The Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI recorded 50, exceeding both expected and previous values of 49.8. The Eurozone October Services PMI recorded 52.6, higher than the expected 51.2 and previous 51.3. Germany's October Composite PMI recorded 53.8, better than the expected 51.5 and previous 52. The October Manufacturing PMI for Germany was 49.6, slightly above the expected and previous values of 49.5. The October Services PMI for Germany was 54.5, exceeding the expected 51 and previous 51.5. Japan's October Composite PMI recorded 50.9, lower than the previous 51.3. Japan's October Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.3, lower than the previous 48.5. Japan's October Services PMI recorded 52.4, lower than the previous 53.3 [2]. Housing Market - US September existing home sales showed a marginal recovery, meeting expectations. The total number of existing home sales annualized increased by 1.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of -0.2%. The total number of existing home sales annualized recorded 4.06 million units, consistent with expectations and higher than the previous value of 4 million units [3]. Major Index Performance - In the week from October 20 to 24, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.91%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 2.18%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 1.92%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 9 sectors rose, with Information Technology leading at 2.75%, while Consumer Staples lagged at -0.59% [4]. Market Outlook - US stocks continued to reach new highs, supported by the easing of tariffs and weaker-than-expected CPI data. The CPI's delayed release indicated a slowdown in inflation, alleviating market anxiety and increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October. This rate cut is expected to aid traditional private demand, such as real estate and manufacturing investments, alongside fiscal stimulus and ongoing technology investment trends, suggesting a gradual recovery in the US credit cycle. As of last week, 29% of S&P 500 constituents had reported Q3 earnings, with 84% exceeding expectations. In addition to earnings growth, close attention is being paid to corporate cash expenditure outlooks [6].