多空激战3980 黄金后市将走向何方？

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics indicate a shift in gold's role from a passive safe-haven asset to an active hedge, driven by improving global supply chain cooperation and economic signals suggesting a post-cycle phase [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global supply chain cooperation has improved significantly, with the U.S. reaching key mineral agreements and reducing tariff risks, alleviating concerns over extreme supply disruptions [2]. - This cooperation has strengthened raw material supply stability and reduced the urgent demand for traditional safe-haven assets, compressing gold's "safe-haven premium" [2]. - The recent framework for cooperation between the U.S. and Asian economies is interpreted as a positive signal for external friction reduction and industrial chain stability, boosting risk asset sentiment [2]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The latest housing price index for 20 major cities shows a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%, the lowest in over two years and below the 3% inflation level, indicating that nominal asset prices are rising while real household wealth is shrinking [2]. - The combination of high volatility in equity assets, negative real returns in housing, and a cooling job market points to a post-cycle economic phase, where gold typically transitions from a passive hedge to an active hedge asset [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Global gold ETF holdings experienced slight outflows around October 24, marking the first net withdrawal in nearly a week, although this follows eight weeks of inflows and a cumulative increase of over 15% for the year [2]. - The current outflow appears to be a "high-level adjustment" rather than a mass exit, indicating a re-pricing of gold's risk premium rather than a liquidity crisis [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold price has retraced from a previous high of approximately $4381.29 to around $3920, with key Fibonacci retracement levels indicating support at $3972.61 (0.618 level) and $3845.97 (0.500 level) [4]. - The current price is above the 0.500 retracement level, suggesting that while a correction is underway, the overall upward trend remains intact [4]. - If the price declines further, the $3845-$3850 range will be a critical support zone, with additional support at $3719.34 (0.382 level) and $3562.65 (0.236 level) [4]. Group 5: Technical Indicators - The MACD indicator shows significant bearish signals, with the DIFF and DEA lines forming a death cross, indicating increasing bearish momentum [5]. - The RSI has dropped from an overbought level near 80 to approximately 46.35, suggesting a shift in market control from bulls to bears, but still has room before reaching extreme oversold conditions [5]. - Overall, the technical analysis indicates that gold may continue to experience downward pressure until it tests the key support levels, with the potential for recovery if these levels hold [5].