燃油车销量回暖，专家称“退场论”为时尚早

Core Insights - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market [2][4] - In September, domestic sales of passenger cars reached 2.299 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles accounting for 1 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [2] - The sales growth of traditional fuel vehicles has turned positive for the year, with a total of 8.141 million units sold from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [2] Group 1: Sales Data - In September, traditional fuel vehicle sales increased by 10.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of year-on-year growth [2] - For the first nine months of the year, the total domestic sales of passenger cars reached 17.044 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6 thousand units [2] - Retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 4% in September, but a month-on-month increase of 5%, indicating a notable recovery compared to a 14% decline in 2024 [4] Group 2: Policy and Promotions - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, including expanded support for scrapping older vehicles [5] - The promotion intensity for traditional fuel vehicles is significantly higher than that for electric vehicles, with promotional efforts for fuel vehicles remaining stable at around 23.9% [5] - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% in September [5] Group 3: Market Trends - Many automakers are maintaining a dual strategy of promoting both electric and fuel vehicles, with a significant number of new models being fuel vehicles [6] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles reached a historical high of 53.5% in wholesale and 57.8% in retail in September [7] - Despite the growth of electric vehicles, there remains a persistent consumer demand for fuel vehicles, and the notion of a complete phase-out of fuel vehicles is premature [7]