【财经分析】短期利多预期提振美豆近两日大幅跳涨 供应宽松或仍将限制后市涨幅

Core Viewpoint - The overseas agricultural product prices have surged due to improved demand expectations, with Chicago soybean futures reaching a 15-month high, but analysts believe that the short-term sentiment boost may not counterbalance the pressure from abundant supply fundamentals [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent months have seen continuous pressure on soybean prices due to the harvest season and stagnant Chinese buying, leading to weak demand. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory has significantly increased, reaching 18.714 million bushels as of October 17, up 13% week-on-week and 41.89% year-on-year [3]. - Brazil's soybean planting is progressing steadily, with expectations of continued high yields. The latest report from CONAB indicates that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season will reach 49.1 million hectares, with an expected production of 178 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 3.5% respectively [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports remain robust, with October exports projected at 7 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.43 million tons exported in the same month last year [4]. Market Sentiment and Price Movements - The sentiment in the agricultural market has improved following preliminary agreements between China and the U.S. on key trade issues, leading to a significant rise in prices for major agricultural products on October 27, with Chicago corn, wheat, and soybean contracts rising by 1.3%, 2.63%, and 2.33% respectively [3]. - The cost of imported U.S. soybeans in China has also increased, reaching 4,737 yuan per ton, marking a five-and-a-half-month high [3]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, analysts suggest that the overall market remains under pressure due to ample supply. The U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, with an estimated completion of 84% as of October 26, nearing the fastest pace in 14 years [5]. - The domestic soybean and oilseed inventory levels in China are also high, with crushing volumes exceeding 2.1 million tons for two consecutive weeks, indicating a well-supplied market for the fourth quarter [5]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures express that while there is a short-term sentiment recovery, the fundamental supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to change significantly, predicting that soybean prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6].