欧洲央行料按兵不动 德国经济学家称贸易与汇率暂未动摇政策立场

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of KfW, Dirk Schumacher, indicates that despite escalating trade tensions and a stronger euro posing external risks, they are not sufficient to impact the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision this week [1]. Economic Outlook - Trade conflicts with the U.S. remain a primary source of uncertainty, but there is currently no evidence suggesting they have triggered a severe economic recession or materially impacted the inflation trajectory [1]. - The appreciation of the euro is expected to suppress future price pressures and further weaken the competitiveness of European export companies [1]. Inflation Concerns - There are persistent concerns regarding the inflation outlook, with service sector inflation stubbornly remaining around 3%, significantly above the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, which is detrimental to the normalization of overall inflation dynamics [1]. ECB Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain its key interest rate at 2% during the monetary policy meeting on October 31, aligning with recent economic data [1]. - In August, the Eurozone's overall CPI year-on-year recorded 2.1%, with core CPI at 2.3%. Although service sector inflation has decreased from a peak of 4.0% in April, it remains elevated at 3.1% [1]. Decision-Making Framework - Schumacher reiterates that unless clear signals of economic recession emerge, there is a lack of urgency among most ECB decision-makers for further rate cuts. The current policy path will continue to focus on data dependency and closely assess the transmission effects of external shocks on growth and price stability [1].