通胀数据意外加速 澳元飙升至三周高位

Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD) surged to a three-week high against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6600, driven by strong consumer price index (CPI) data, which reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1][2] - The third quarter CPI in Australia rose by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to a 0.7% increase in the second quarter, and the year-on-year CPI climbed to 3.2%, up from 2.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The RBA's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that despite a surprising rise in unemployment, the labor market remains somewhat tight, leading investors to focus on upcoming inflation data for insights into future interest rate movements [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, the probability of a rate cut at the RBA's November meeting dropped significantly from 40% to 8%, and the December cut probability fell from 70% to 28%, with full pricing of a cut pushed to June next year [2] - The market is reacting to inflation risks, particularly in construction costs and service pressures, which have led to a reassessment of monetary policy expectations [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair indicates a bullish shift if it breaks above the descending channel, with immediate resistance at the psychological level of 0.6600 [3] - A breakthrough at 0.6600 could lead the AUD/USD to explore the 12-month high of 0.6707 reached on September 17 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 0.6546 and the 9-day moving average of 0.6545; a drop below these levels could reignite bearish sentiment [3]