机构看金市：10月29日

Core Viewpoints - The gold market is likely entering a phase of wide-ranging high-level fluctuations, requiring time to digest emotional impacts [1] - Weakening driving factors have led to continuous adjustments in precious metals after significant price increases [2] - The next potential upward movement in gold prices may not occur until 2026, following a period of consolidation [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hai Tong Futures indicates that substantial profit-taking is driving the decline in precious metal prices, with a notable drop in Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures positions suggesting many long positions are exiting [1] - The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has marginally increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is weak, with expectations of a prolonged period of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures notes that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of economic data guidance are impacting market sentiment [2] - The increase in global central bank gold purchases reflects a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid deteriorating fiscal conditions and rising distrust in the financial system [2] - The ADP's new weekly employment data indicates a modest increase in private sector jobs, but the ongoing government shutdown continues to create uncertainty [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen highlights that gold prices may have reached a peak this year, with a critical support level at $3,846 per ounce [3] - Trade Nation's David Morrison points out that recent technical indicators suggest a risk of short-term declines in gold prices, with a need for prices to rise above $4,100 per ounce to establish a new bullish momentum [3]