降息还是观望？加拿大央行面临通胀与疲软经济的两难抉择

Group 1 - The business failure rate in Canada increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% in July, reversing the previous month's decline, while the business opening rate remained stable at 5.0% [1] - There is a significant structural divide in business activity, with industries heavily reliant on U.S. demand experiencing a sharp contraction, particularly in mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] - The recent announcement by U.S. President Trump to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods has heightened tensions in the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which is the largest bilateral trade relationship globally [1] Group 2 - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower its policy interest rate this week due to overall economic weakness, although core inflation's stickiness may complicate the decision [2] - Some analysts, like RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas, predict that the Bank of Canada will maintain the current policy rate at 2.5%, citing core CPI hovering around 3% [2] - Canadian National Bank's wealth management economist Ethan Currie expects a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25% this week, with another cut to 2.0% in December, indicating a need for a moderately accommodative policy stance due to accumulated economic weakness [3]