智通财经网·2025-10-29 03:34Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the regulation of pig production capacity under policy guidance will remain a key theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing and the cost advantages of high-quality capacity becoming more pronounced, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation [1] Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The downward trend in pig prices continues, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in September 2025 at 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [1] - After the National Day holiday, the average price of live pigs has been on a continuous decline, reaching 10.90 CNY/kg by October 20 [1] Supply Side - In September, there was a concentrated release of pig output, with an increase in the outflow plans from both large-scale and social farms as the weather cooled, leading to a rise in market pig supply and meat output [2] - The demand side saw slight improvement due to pre-holiday stocking and cooler weather, but slaughter enterprises remained cautious, and slow inventory reduction of frozen products limited fresh product consumption growth [2] - By mid-October, the pace of second fattening at near the 10 CNY/kg bottom price accelerated, providing slight support to short-term pig prices [2] Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%, and a reduction of 90,000 heads compared to the end of Q2 [3] - Data from various sources indicate a consistent downward trend in breeding sow inventory, with a month-on-month decline of 0.84% in the sample data from Yongyi and 0.28% in the Steel Union sample data [3] Policy Regulation and Price Decline - Current policy regulations are fully implemented, with previous meetings clarifying requirements for production capacity control, slaughter weight, and environmental funding [4] - Leading enterprises have responded positively, with Muyuan Foods reporting a breeding sow inventory of 3.305 million heads at the end of September, a reduction of 126,000 heads since the end of June [4] - As of October 24, 2025, the average profit per head for self-bred pigs in the industry was -185.68 CNY, and for purchased piglets, it was -289.07 CNY, indicating increased losses in farming [4] - The combination of policy regulation and industry losses is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, with pig prices likely to see an upward turning point in the second half of 2026 [4]