全球牛市“幻象”背后，对美元信用质疑会持续吗

Core Viewpoint - The current global financial market is experiencing a unique phenomenon where almost all major assets are rising simultaneously despite economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, indicating a global asset revaluation driven by a "credit crisis" related to the dollar's credibility rather than its status as a reserve currency [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Price Movements - From 2025 onwards, major stock market indices have risen, while bond yields in major economies have decreased, leading to an increase in bond values [2]. - The rise in asset prices is not due to accelerated global economic growth, as the IMF predicts a decline in global growth rates for 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The increase in asset prices is not a result of further global liquidity easing, as global M2 reached $113 trillion by July 2023, with marginal growth rates remaining stable [2][7]. - The rise in asset prices is not driven by a specific technology cycle, such as artificial intelligence, as traditional sectors like finance and real estate are also experiencing gains [12][13]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility Issues - The dollar is facing a credibility crisis stemming from political, financial, and fiscal dimensions, leading to a structural change in market trust regarding its long-term purchasing power and political neutrality [14][15]. - The political shift in the U.S. towards protectionism and unilateralism has raised doubts about America's commitment to maintaining global stability [16]. - The frequent use of the dollar payment system as a diplomatic tool has prompted countries to reassess their reliance on the dollar [16]. - The continuous growth of U.S. government debt has raised concerns about the long-term purchasing power of the dollar [16]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Dollar Credibility - The recovery of dollar credibility is not solely under U.S. control but depends on the evolution of the global political and economic landscape [17]. - Key factors for potential recovery include a return to policy certainty post-2026 U.S. midterm elections, sustained economic improvement, and robust monetary policy operations by the Federal Reserve [17][18]. - Improvements in the international environment and addressing deep structural issues, such as manufacturing return and debt control, are essential for the long-term restoration of dollar credibility [19][20].