RBI set to resume bond buys to boost cash, analysts say

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to resume bond purchases early next year to address emerging liquidity strains among lenders, with potential purchases estimated at around ₹1 lakh crore ($11.3 billion) in the January-March quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Situation - Lenders are experiencing a cash shortage following the RBI's intervention to support the rupee, which has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies this year [2][3]. - As of October 27, there was a ₹11,360-crore deficit in banking liquidity, a significant drop from a surplus of approximately ₹4 lakh crore in August, influenced by tax outflows and increased cash demand during festivals [3][4]. Group 2: RBI's Actions - The RBI has recently increased short-term cash injections and conducted foreign-exchange swaps to replenish liquidity after its currency-support measures drained cash from the system [4][5]. - The last bond purchase by the RBI occurred in May, totaling ₹5.2 lakh crore over five months leading up to that date [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the RBI will return to bond purchases as a primary tool for ensuring durable liquidity, which would also support the bond market [6]. - The need for liquidity injections may decrease if a US-India trade deal enhances foreign inflows, although the RBI has maintained interest rates for now while indicating potential future easing [5][6].