Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 05:33Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has officially included the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program, initiating centralized procurement for the bivalent HPV vaccine, with a total procurement quantity of 15.4465 million doses and a budget of approximately 425 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Procurement Details - The centralized procurement for the bivalent HPV vaccine is set for October to December 2025, with a unit price of approximately 27.5 yuan per dose, which is expected to cover 7.72325 million girls aged 9 to 14 years [1][2]. - The procurement is managed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, with a total budget of 424.78 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The market for the bivalent HPV vaccine consists of two segments: the existing market for girls aged 9 to 14 and the annual new entrants into this age group [5]. - From 2025 to 2030, the female population aged 9 to 14 is projected to be approximately 48.9 million to 43.7 million, with a cumulative incremental market size estimated at around 1.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - The total market size for the national immunization program from 2025 to 2030 is expected to be around 3.8 billion yuan, considering both the existing and incremental markets [8][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - A price war has emerged between Watson Bio and Wantai Bio over the bivalent HPV vaccine, with the winning bid price dropping from an initial range of 329 to 344 yuan per dose to the current price of 27.5 yuan [9][10]. - The competitive dynamics shifted significantly after the National Health Commission announced plans to promote free HPV vaccinations, leading to rapid market expansion [9]. - Wantai Bio has engaged in aggressive pricing strategies, with bids as low as 63 yuan per dose in 2024, indicating a continued trend of price reductions in the market [10].