新股前瞻|行业龙头亦难抵价格寒冬，“反内卷”能否带动中润光能价值重估？

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhongrun Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhongrun Photovoltaic) is advancing its listing process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application twice, with a focus on specialized photovoltaic cell manufacturing and vertical expansion into module production [1][2]. Company Overview - Zhongrun Photovoltaic is the world's largest specialized manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, with a significant market share of 18.3% among specialized manufacturers and 14.6% among all manufacturers, based on a projected shipment of 34.5GW in 2024 [1][2]. - The company has two main business lines: photovoltaic cells and modules, with cell revenue accounting for 81.1% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Zhongrun Photovoltaic from 2022 to 2024 are projected at 12.517 billion, 20.838 billion, and 11.320 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 834 million, 1.681 billion, and a loss of 1.363 billion RMB [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.465 billion RMB, a 26.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.204 billion RMB, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The transition from P-type to N-type photovoltaic cells is a significant trend, with N-type cell revenue growing from 0% in 2022 to 48.1% in 2024, driven by advancements in technology [3][4]. - The average selling price of photovoltaic cells has seen a drastic decline, with prices dropping from 0.9945 RMB/W in 2022 to 0.3202 RMB/W in 2024, reflecting intense market competition [7][8]. International Expansion - Zhongrun Photovoltaic has established a global presence, exporting products to over 32 countries and regions, with significant production capacities in the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia [5][6]. - In 2024, 67.1% of the company's revenue came from mainland China, while 32.9% was generated from international markets, indicating a successful international strategy [5][6]. Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a shift towards "value competition" rather than "price competition," with efforts to stabilize prices and improve profitability [9][10]. - The company's strategic focus on advanced technologies such as HJT, TOPCon, and perovskite solar cells is crucial for maintaining competitiveness and achieving long-term growth [10].