Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-29 05:42Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates a positive growth trend in China's express delivery industry, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of the year due to a reduction in price competition and regulatory oversight from the postal administration [1]. Summary by Categories Industry Growth - By September 2025, the total volume of express delivery packages in China is projected to reach 16.88 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, the total volume is expected to be 145.08 billion packages, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [1]. Revenue and Pricing - In September 2025, the express delivery industry's revenue is anticipated to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while the average revenue per package is expected to decline by 4.9% [1]. - From January to September 2025, the industry's revenue is projected to increase by 8.9% year-on-year, with a 7.1% decrease in average revenue per package [1]. Competitive Landscape - The decline in average revenue per package has shown signs of narrowing both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a moderation in price competition within the industry [1]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to alleviate competitive pressures, leading to a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery services in the latter half of the year [1]. - Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, and there is a recommendation to closely monitor the regulatory efforts of the postal administration [1].